GRIDLINE's Primetime Plays
National Football League 2015 Season

WEEK 02
ATS RecPct.Chips BetNet Chips
Week 022-2-050.0%4.3-0.1
Season to date4-3-157.1%8.60.8

content below posted 13:40MON21SEP15 cst
Plays for MNF

We collected a nasty MISS with Seattle last nite. It was a bad play. Seattle's defense doesn't appear to be as vaunted as it has been in the past, and their offense isn't something the coach can turn on and turn off. Russell has to run the ball himself on the first play, not when the Hawks are 10 points behind in the 3rd quarter. Somehow we got enamored with the points and we wouldn't take our own advice from our first capsule, i.e., "... it's very difficult to win on the road against a good team, and we know point spreads only come into play a fifth of the time."

Colts -7
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MISS: Jets 20 Colts 7
 The Colts may or may not be as bad as their performance was last week, and the Jets may or may not be as good. Last year Miami was coming of an opening day victory over the Pats, then got dominated the next week by the Bills. We're not saying the Jets can't be the surprise of the league this year, we're just saying a single sampling isn't a good indicator of a team's strengths, or lack thereof. We have seen the Colts offer up some real clunkers before and comeback the next week sharp as a tack.

This is coach Todd Bowles first road trip with the team and it's new staff. That has to be distracting going up against Pagano. We have seen the savvy strategist generate points from the sideline. Fitzpatrick can be hot or cold, while Luck is mostly hot. The play looks good, even as some outs reduce the spread to 6 1/2, and our guys offer the -7 at even money.
content below posted 15:15SUN20SEP15 cst
Plays for SNF
Again, another tough call in PrimeTime. Some say the Seahawks have started to decline after dropping the season opener to the Rams. We're gonna make a couple of excuses for them so bear with us. First off, we think Carroll is a little reluctant to run Wilson during the regular season. Who can blame him? Still, at the risk of going 0-2, we think it's full go tonite. B) It was a little early, 11:00 am their time, for the Seahawks to play football. Call it biorythms or call GRIDLINE crazy, but it might help explain why the Hawks trailed by 11 after 3 quarters. GRIDLINE has made quite a penny betting against west coast teams at noon this century. Needless to say, we think the Hawks will play better this week.

As for the game, it's a points thing. We don't like like talking about points. We like it better when we think the underdog will win outright. To be honest, we don't know who's going to win this game. For all we know the Pats exposed the Hawks in the Super Bowl last year and Aaron Rogers will come out rifling short passes to the sidlines. But we do know that 3 is the most common margin of victory in the NFL (not game-by-game, but more compared to every other margin of victory). Wouldn't if be nice if the points came into play when we needed them.
Seahawks +3
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MISS: Pack 27 Hawks 17
content below posted 19:00SAT19SEP15 cst
Plays for Sunday afternoon

If you were a Bronco bettor and you got one of those "lucky bastard" hive-fives from your buddy at the bar, don't buy it. Regardless of the late game fumble that determined the outcome, the Broncos looked real good headed for OT. It was a good play even when the Chiefs took a late lead. We'll take Manning with 2 minutes left against today's standard Prevent Defense. Let's try to make it 4 in a row in Sunday afternoon's feature game.

Cowboys +5
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HIT: Cows 20 Eags 10
 We mentioned last week that, despite the spread loss, it wasn't a bad bet to go with Dallas. We need those turnovers to even out. It didn't happen in Week 01, maybe it will this week.

This one is always tough to figure. The game we can't get out of our mind is last year's Cowboy win in Philly, as an underdog - a game in which we had the Eagles. That wasn't a fluke, it was simply a bigger, meaner Cowboy team. We don't emphasize previous games here at GRIDLINE, but we do emphasize mean-ness. We think the Cows have the advantage along the line of scrimmage.

Dez Bryant is out, maybe that accounts for the 5 points in Vegas. Not here. Philly's healthy. It's going to be a nice day, it should be a great game.
content below posted 03:30THU17SEP15 cst
Plays for Thursday nite

We would be remiss if we didn't mention how refreshing it was to see Carrie Underwood doing the intro to SNF. She looked and sounded great. Several of the world's greatest athletes images were superimposed on the screen but it was plain to see who was in the best shape.

It was a good Monday for GRIDLINE. Philly clearly wasn't ready to start the game. It looked like they went in with a poor game plan, unready to deal with Atlanta's passing attack, and way too predictable on offense. It was great to have the 3 points when the Eags came back but unlike the first two games, the points didn't come into play at the final gun. In the late game, the 49ers looked much like the 49ers we know. Teams don't run on them. For a run-based offense like Minnesota's that's a real problem. As for the surprise running back Hyde, that wasn't a simple spin move on his TD run, it was a moving spin with a direction change. We hadn't seen that one since O.J.

Broncos +3
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HIT: Broncos 31 Chiefs 24
 If you look at our churn chart you'll see Denver has a new coaching staff. The red names don't mean they're bad. They don't even mean they're new to the league. They're just different. Denver's 'new' coach has been to the Super Bowl as a player and as an assistant coach, and as a head coach he installed a revolutionary control-pass offense in Houston, along with an adequate D. He's a wily veteran. Reid is too, when he's focused on the game, and he does seem to be focused on the game nowadays. It looks like the oddsmakers have debited the Broncos somewhat for the coaching changes. To us, as good as Reid is, it looks like a wash.

Last week the Broncos beat a very Chiefs-like team in the Baltimore Ravens. We didn't learn anything from the Chiefs victory as the Texan's QB bumbled the game away. Manning doesn't figure to do that. It's always good to have Manning, a QB who we have seen guide his team from 17-point deficits to win the game AND beat the spread, on more than one occasion. Some news outlets say he's getting old. We'll bet him when he's a hundred.

That's it. Even GRIDLINE doesn't pass on Manning and points.
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Good Luck Everyone!



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