GRIDLINE's Primetime Plays
National Football League 2015 Season

WEEK 03

	ATS Rec	Pct.	Chips Bet	Net Chips
Week 03	3-1-0	75.0%	4.4	2.9
Season to date	7-4-1	63.6%	13.0	3.7

content below posted 17:30MON28SEP15 cst

Plays for MNF

There's not much to say about Frisco's performance yesterday. They didn't get off the plane. We been studying this NO SHOW phenomenon for years but we still haven't figured it out completely. We have examined it with psychologists and the best we could determine was that bad play is contagious. If one player isn't ready to play, soon it's two players, then 4, then 8. If the first player is the QB, then the contagion is even faster. 2 pick-sixes in the first quarter will definitely lead to a NO SHOW. One last word, it can happen to anybody, and it happens in about 1/7th of the games. All a bettor can do is hope to avoid them, and try to forget about them when they do happen.

The Broncos game was suspenseful. Denver has a pretty good D, and Detroit can still play good D at home. That call at the end where Manning tossed the TD was key. It's similar to what the Giants faced in week 1. If The Broncs had tried to run down the clock and kick a FG, they would have left the door open for the Lions to march downfield and tie the game, or at least beat the spread. Most coaches will blow the strategy. Kubiak is to be commended for staying aggressive and choosing to win.

It's going to rain tonite, but no wind is forecast so the teams won't be grounded. It doesn't look like anybody can beat the Pack in Green Bay. The Pats couldn't last year. Let's hope the equipment managers keep the football's air pressure down. No disrespect to the Chiefs, but this one's just a matter of the turnovers evening out.

Packers -6

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HIT: Pack 38 Chiefs 28

content below posted 16:00SUN27SEP15 cst

Plays for SNF

Broncos -3

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HIT: Broncos 24 Lions 12

The Lions D has been shredded in their first two games: Once by the pass, and once by the rush. A team needs a pass rush against Peyton Manning and the Lions haven't exactly dominated in that department. They ARE finally playing at home but Denver has been playing some good ball in the last quarter and sometimes the crowd component of the HFA doesn't last that long. We'll place a chip on the Broncs and we'll place our faith on Peyton.

content below posted 01:00SUN27SEP15 cst

Plays for Sunday afternoon

Nice to get a HIT Thursday when we were on the verge of dropping into a nasty losing streak. It looked like a good play. The points that ended up beating the spread were a result of Cousins' INT, followed by Manning's TD pass. Despite the weirdness, it was Manning out-passing Cousins while the Skins couldn't run, pretty much as we said.

The point spread looks like it was influenced by the 49ers ugly loss to Pittsburgh last Sunday, but people who know us know we don't hold a loss against a team that's playing at 10am their time. Plus, we weren't really impressed by the Cards win over Chitown. Gamblers need to have a short memory anyway.

We think both teams will struggle with the run Sunday. It may come down to Palmer's passing vs. Kaepernick's passing and running. As slow-scoring as these two team's can be, the game could come down to a single big play. In any case, whoever wins, we don't see them winning by more than 6 points. Let's just hope for a defensive game with the turnovers evening out, and maybe the spread will come in handy if the Niners lose.

49ers +6 1/2

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MISS: Cards 47 49ers 7

content below posted 02:00THU24SEP15 cst

Plays for Thursday nite

5 turnovers. We don't want to sound like we're not owning the MNF loss but this was an uncappable game. No one can predict that many turnovers. It really isn't even a football game at that point. Pagano did screw up in the 2nd quarter when he literally passed on bruting the Jets on 2nd and 2. He did it several times, trying to be cute when he was supposed to play football. There were several other reasons why we lost, but it's always fun to blast the coach. Anyway, let's try to get a winner before this thing turns into a losing streak.

Maybe it's a little early to get into this kind of analysis, but it looks like the Skins want to run the ball, and we don't believe that's going to happen in Giantland. The Giants have been beaten with the pass by both the Birds and the Cows after Eli Manning uncharacteristically broke down. Neither team had any real success running on them, while Washington has shown a reliance on the run in their game plan. It doesn't look the Giants figure to be beat on the ground, and we're not sure Cousins can carry the load in a passing contest. That's Eli's game. Let's just hope he's on it.

We had to buy the 1/2 point so we're actually betting this one at 13/10. The weather looks to be perfect. The Giants are a bit busted up with Rogers-Cromartie and a few DLs out. Plus, we are kind of hoping that Cousins can't have his way with the injured Giants secondary. In any event, let's just hope the turnovers even out, Eli plays the whole game, and Coughlin doesn't have another brain fart.

Giants -3 (buy)

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HIT: Giants 32 Skins 21

Good Luck Everyone!

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