GRIDLINE's Primetime Plays
National Football League 2015 Season

WEEK 04
ATS RecPct.Chips BetNet Chips
Week 042-1-166.7%4.40.9
Season to date9-5-264.3%17.44.6

content below posted 17:30MON05OCT15 cst
Plays for MNF

A bad bet and a good bet yesterday.

We were a little surprised when the Rams jumped on top early, and a lot surprised when the Cards blew a 1st and goal from the one. In our capsule, we stated that Foles wouldn't be able to loop passes downfield. He did hit those passes downfield on a few occasions, including the game winner. Good for Foles. Bad for GRIDLINE.

The nite game was a lot more fun. We struggled beforehand whether to play the Saints -3 or the UNDER 48. When the Saints lined up for the game winning FG at 20-20, we knew it was the right call to play the UNDER. Such an easy HIT. Then the kid misses the short FG and we head into OT where we could easily blow the bet. Fortunately for UNDER bettors, it didn't turn out that way, but it does illustrate how a good bet can go bad.
It's our least favorite bet to take a road dog and hope the points will come into play, but that's what we're doing tonite. We think the Hawks should win this one at home, we just don't think it'll be by 10. At the very least it presents the possibility of a backdoor cover. Seattle bettors need an 18 point lead late in the game before they can relax. These are two good defenses with two conservative offenses. If the Lions can keep their wits about them, Seattle coach Carroll may be forced to cut Wilson loose. It's something he avoids during the regular season. We need to see lots of punts and we need the Lions to collect the points when they are there.
Lions +10
N/A
Computer Projecton
HIT: Hawks 13 Lions 10
content below posted 18:00SUN04OCT15 cst
Plays for SNF
We said Thursday that every bettor hates UNDERs, but that doesn't mean we won't play them. The number is slightly high for a couple of slow scoring teams, especially with Romo down. Also, part of the reason the Saints are 0-3 is because they leave points on the field. Pretty thin analysis but that's all we have tonite.
Cows/Saints
UNDER 48
N/A
Computer Projecton
HIT: Saints 26 Cows 20
content below posted 03:10SUN04OCT15 cst
Plays for Sunday afternoon

Some bettors can't stand pushes. At GRIDLINE, they are okay by us. We still get the thrills and suspense that comes with having a vested interest in the game, and we have found that we do well in a season that features multiple pushes. And really, anything's better than losing isn't it?

We pushed in the first game of the season when we had the Pats over Pittsburgh, In that one, it looked like we were going to hit until the Steelers scored a consolation TD. Thursday, again against Pitt, it looked like we were going to miss until missed FGs and 4th down conversions gave the Ravens several extra opportunities. That's been our experience with pushes over the years, the good ones and the bad ones even out.
People that know us know we're not afraid to lay points and they know we like home teams. That's because home favorites have less chance of being a NO SHOW, Remember, last week we said 1/7th of the games involve NO SHOWS. What we didn't say was that most of them are at least 7 point road dogs. 3 of the 4 afternoon games meet that criteria. It'd be nice if we could predict NO SHOWs, but really, nobody can.

Barring that, we do like the way the Cards have been playing this year. On defense, it doesn't look like anyone can run on them, and the secondary seems to drop back to where an opponent can't go deep, and they still limit the underneath yardage. You'd have to be a QB on the order of a Carson Palmer to have success throwing underneath all day. Foles, on the other hand, is much more effective looping the ball downfield. We think the Rams will have some success doing that this year, just not against the Cards this afternoon.
Cardinals -7
N/A
Computer Projecton
MISS: Rams 24 Cards 22
content below posted 17:30THU01OCT15 cst
Plays for Thursday nite

We mentioned that we wondered if anybody could beat the Packers in Green Bay, now we're wondering if anybody can beat the Packers, period. The offense has incredible timing and the once questionable defense now seems to concentrate on the opposing offense's strength. They also appear to get an incredible amount of breaks. These guys are in tune to rules that are designed to accentuate the pass these days.

The Chiefs did manage to make it interesting in the end, especially with regard to the point spread. A lot of bettors don't think 6 is a large spread. We were one On Sides kick from being in real jeopardy, and coaches do give up the consolation TD with that Prevent Defense. When you're laying 6, you have to have a 15 point lead late in the game to feel entirely safe.

We usually transition to the GRIDLINE computer system in WEEK 04. We have decided to delay that move for another week, partly because we have been doing well intuitively with a 7-4-1 ATS record, and partly because we are a little behind in data maintenance. We'll start depending on the computer in WEEK 05. A little more data can't hurt.

We were seriously considering the UNDER tonite. The homies are missing their QB and they only posted 12 points last week. But like all bettors, we don't like UNDERs. With the UNDER you can lose by halftime, and we have seen teams combine for 24 points after the two-minute warning. Besides, the O/U is already set below the league average.

It's tough to lay points to a winning team at home, especially with an 0-3 team. But as we mentioned, the Steelers can be a slow scoring team, and Flacco has been lighting it up lately, even in losses. And about those losses, teams have been passing the Ravens silly this year, does anybody believe Michael Vick is capable of doing the same? Maybe he can. Maybe the Ravens pass D is that bad, but we'll take our chances. Going with the road favorite.
Ravens -3
N/A
Computer Projecton
PUSH: Ravens 23 Pitt 20


Good Luck Everyone!



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