GRIDLINE's Primetime Plays
National Football League 2015 Season

WEEK 09
ATS RecPct.Chips BetNet Chips
Week 093-3-150.0%8.8-1.4
Season to date22-16-457.9%49.52.2

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Plays for MNF

There are a few reasons that previous NFL commissioner Paul Tagliabue instituted the rule that PATs must be attempted even after the game clock expires, not the least of which is Tag's declaration that "The NFL shall avoid even the appearance of impropriety." We got a miraculous save when the Giants scored a flash TD on the last play of the game against the Bucs, only to have Coughlin instruct his players to kneel on the required extra point try. That left us with a PUSH instead of a HIT. Aside from giving the appearance that someone in Giant's management had UNDER 50 1/2, that "failed" PAT could possibly shut them out of the playoffs. Net points is one of the tiebreakers. That unlikely scenario would give us unbridled joy, but we won't be fully satisfied until Coughlin is doddering in an old folks home.

That was the most dumbfounding incident of a day full of dumbfounding incidents. We lost when the Jets Prevent defense prevented the Jaguars from scoring a consolation TD for all of 30 seconds. In SNF, not one, but two flash TDs combined to cost us our Teaser. It sounds pretty bad, but we're only down a little juice for the week. Still, someone tell us again why we love betting these games so much.

This is another tough one to call but it might be fun to watch. The Chargers can't run, but they can pass. Chitown can't pass, and they don't run very well either, but they sure run a lot. Neither team plays defense. It's a pretty good bet that both teams will move the ball at the start of the game, but rain may slow them down later. There's an equal chance of either team not showing up for the game. We'll go with with Rivers and hope the home team can at least offer a little resistance. Who wants to bet there's not another officiating blunder tonite?
Chargers -4
Chargers 30 Bears 23
Computer Projection
MISS: Bears 22 Bolts 19
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Plays for SNF
The Cows haven't won in awhile but we think they can stay with the Eags. They did it earlier this season, albeit with Romo. Still, pretty impressive doing it in Philly, and really, it was the D that made it happen.

We're going to play a TEASER, adding 6 to both the 3 point spread and 43 1/2 point Total. We want to accommodate the RECENT forecast that had it 25-17 Eagles. Now, all three forecasts are in agreement on the play. It's hard to hit two bets even with the added points, but we figure Dallas needs to keep the score down to stay in the game, anyway. TEASERs only pay like a regular spread bet if they come in, so a one-chip play only wins a chip.

TEASER: Cowboys +9 &
Cows/Eags UNDER 49 1/2
Cowboys 22 Eagles 21
Computer Generated BEST BET
MISS: Eags 33 Cows 27
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Plays for Sunday

We got the HIT Thursday nite. That makes us happy as gamblers, but it's makes us a little sad as fans. The management in Cleveland is completely baffled as to what to do with Manziel. It would be better to let Johnny run wild than to try to turn him into the prototypical QB. They need to find a way to spring him on controlled rollouts and moving pockets. It didn't help that the Browns dropped several passes in the second half - that's on the players - but a team has to have special plays on call, like the reverse Cincy ran for a TD. That's on the coaches. We don't know if we're going to win or lose any particular game, but we like to think the coaches will use their imagination on game day.

When we saw this one at less than 7 it looked a little funny. But the spread moved upward quickly and it continues to rise so it doesn't look as suspicious lately. Plus, when they do pull a fast one it's generally for the home team.

There's not much to analyze here. We have the Jets ranked 2nd in our objective Power Ratings, while the Jags rank 30th. This has to be one of those "They were overlooking them" things for the Jets to falter, and we don't think that'll happen at home. Let's go lite on the locals.
Jets -8
Jets 30 Jags 17
Computer Generated BEST BET
MISS: Jets 28 Jags 23
This is a scary play. Our OFFICIAL forecast calls it a Best Bet but both our RECENT and NOSHOW supplementary forecasts call it a push at 3 points. The only really good indicator is that both our OFFICIAL and NOSHOW forecasts give the rushing game to Buffalo. We are plenty concerned that the Fins will post another inspired performance like the Titan or Texan games, but we do have the home team (again) and the Bills should return to some semblance of form after being forced to endure the London trip.
Bills -3
Bills 30 Jaguars 17
Computer Generated BEST BET
HIT: Bills 33 Fins 17
Panthers +3
Panthers 30 Jaguars 17
Computer Generated BEST BET
HIT: Pants 37 Pack 29
 This one could look a lot like last Monday's game, which we lost, but the glaring difference is the point spread. We get points this time. The better football will be played when the Packers have the ball. When the Packers have the ball you'll see an excellent offense against an excellent defense. When the Panthers have the ball, it's just an average offense against an average defense. No matter the quality of football being played, we expect things to even out. With all things being equal, yes, we do like the home team.

This won't be a deluge like it was last week. We hope the Panthers won't shut down like they did last week, either. Hopefully, the coaches can instill in them the fact that once they turn it off, it takes days to turn it back on again. The Packers haven't played well at all the last month. We don't expect that to continue, but we do expect the Panthers pass D to offer resistance at home. We love all NFL teams. We can't stay mad at the Panthers.

Bucs/Giants
OVER 50
Bucs 31 Giants 25
Computer Projection
PUSH: Giants 32 Bucs 18
 Our one afternoon play is a Best Bet but we're not going to play that angle. In looking over the data, it doesn't appear that the Bucs have the pass D to slow down the Giants. The Giants also have defensive problems, and they're facing the team that has had the best offense over the last month. With numbers like that, these two teams should score a zillion points.

This week's special report is our 2015 Standings and End-of-season Projections. We try to call the final playoff seeds based on each team's current numbers. There aren't many changes to the current state of things in the AFC. Right now, the Broncos hold the current 3-seed because they haven't played as many conference games, but we expect them to remain undefeated and earn the AFC HFA. The new guy on the block is the Oakland Raiders, who currently hold and is expected to hold the 6-seed. The return of R'Berger can affect that scenario. It should also be noted that we expect the Colts to set the precedent for the worst regular season record to make the playoffs. In the NFC, look for Carolina to continue to roll, even though they may drop a couple of games, and nail the HFA. The Eags should assert themselves and take the East, although the computer doesn't know that Dallas QB Romo is due back for the second half of the season. The Vikes have surprised so far but we expect them to falter a bit, allowing the Seahawks to sneak into the playoffs. We realize there is no practical value to projecting the postseason participants as far as spread bettors are concerned, but it is fun.

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Plays for Thursday nite

That was a toughie Monday nite. The play looked great in the last quarter when we had a 23-6 lead. We could give up a TD and a FG in the last 8 minutes. But Carolina got complacent right at that point, and when they went to turn it back on, it wasn't there. It ended up in a worse case scenario where we lose the bet and Carolina still wins the game. The last thing you want is them celebrating while you're forking over the bucks.

Record-wise, we ended up 3-2-1 ATS in GRIDLINE's first computer system action of the year, so we're still maintaining a 60% hit ratio for the year, but we ended up losing a little in WEEK 08 because we had more cash on the two losses than we had on the three wins. We're still well ahead, but we're trying to up our risk factor so things can change quickly. We'll try and do better this week.

The bad news is: There's only a tiny difference between GRIIDLINE's computer projection and the point spread, The good news is: Our supporting projections, the RECENT forecast (using numbers just from the last month) and the NOSHOW forecast (ignoring games with at least a 20 point deficit) both point toward Cincy. It doesn't hurt that the Bengals are the best at beating the spread.

We are predicting a good rushing attack for the Bengals. Their rushing numbers are fine, while the Browns defense against the run may be the worst. Also, Dalton looks to be well protected while Manziel may have to run for his life. We don't exactly know Manziel's capabilities. The Browns coaches tell us he's not ready, but do we trust the Browns to properly evaluate talent? Manziel may play like Johnny Football for all we know.

This is definitely a bet we don't want a lot riding on. Covering a large spread like this almost demands a rout. We don't like to predict routs. Make it a lousy chip on a game we hope is equally lousy.
Bengals -11
Bengals 31 Browns 19
Computer Projection
HIT: Bengals 31 Browns 10


Good Luck Everyone!



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