WEEK 10

Another nite where we need some action. What else can we do? Spend quality time with the family? Cincy might rout the Texans tonite, but we don't like to predict routs. With NFL coaches giving away consolation TDs like a tip of the hat nowadays, that's pretty much what we'd have to have before we could relax. Besides, the NO SHOW forecasts shows the Texans beating the spread if they keep their heads down. No, we'll go with OVER the Total of 46 1/2, where all of our forecasts agree. That way, the consolation TD could work in our favor. Also, Refs have been known to trot 60 yards downfield unopposed and place the ball on the one. Sounds crazy, but it happens. Go Bengals! Go Texans! Go everybody!

Bengals/Texans OVER 46 1/2 Bengals 32 Texans 19 Computer Projection MISS: Texans 10 Bengals 6

The GRIDLINE forecast gives the Hawks the slightest nod in our official forecast, the one that may be tainted by an overstated HFA. We are more impressed with the RECENT forecast, the one that focuses on just last month. That one has it Hawks by 9, and it's reflective of the many turnovers the Cards have had lately. Over the last 4 weeks, the Cards have fumbled more than anyone else. We don't like to predict fumbles - we usually expect them to even out in any particular game - but we'll need them to cover this spread. In this case, we'll need the HFA as well. We hate to say it, but it looks like we're betting against the better team.

Seahawks -3 Seahawks 23 Cardinals 19 Computer Projection MISS: Cards 39 Seahawks 32

Redskins PICK Redskins 30 Saints 25 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Skins 37 Saints 14

This is one of those games where the HFA is pushing it to Best Bet status. This game will probably be decided by a turnover. Neither team can run the ball, but both teams should be able to pass. The Saints because they have Drew Brees, and the Skins because the Saints offer little resistance to the pass. Actually, the Saints offer little resistance to anything, sporting the worst defense in the league. The Skins aren't much better but they do manage to keep the passing yardage down a bit.

What do you get when the most efficient rushing team in the league goes up against the worst run defense? You hope to get an easy victory. It is a statistical mismatch. R'Berger's listed as questionable, but the answer to the question is usually 'Yes'. Even with Landry Jones at QB the Steelers should be able to exploit a stacked line. We're a little concerned about the backdoor cover given today's Prevent defenses, but we like to think the Browns will get caught up in sacks and penalties. Let's go lite on this one.

Steelers -6 Steelers 29 Browns 25 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Steelers 30 Browns 9

We need an afternoon game, so why not go with the team that has surprised us on several occasions? Actually, both teams are surprise teams this year. The GRIDLINE computer seems to think the Raiders can contain the Vikes run game this afternoon. The Raiders show a relatively weak defense, but they do have a decent run D, and sometimes teams play better run D at home. This game might turn into a passing contest. Well put our chip on Derek Carr and the big play Raiders on what might be a rainy day in Oakland.

Raiders -3 Raiders 27 Vikings 21 Computer Projection MISS: Raiders 30 Vikes 13

Buffalo is one of a few teams that run the ball over half the time. When they do throw, that running game makes it possible to complete a large percentage of passes downfield. We don't think the Bills are going to be effective on the ground. The Jets may have the best run D in the league. And we don't think they'll be hitting a particularly high percentage of their passes. The Jets only allow an amazing 56% completion rate - best in the league. On the other hand, while we expect the Jets also to have problems running the ball, it looks like they should be able to post some decent passing numbers against a team that has given up a lot of passing yardage. The bettors are a little skittish about the Jets, with the spread dropping to 1 point reportedly in some places. That's due, in part, because they are expecting rain at Metlife stadium. We checked with our New Jersey sources who have told us that it is not expected to be bad at all. Our biggest concern is the consolation TD. The Jets Prevent defense is no more than an opponent executing the passing tree. We'll go with a lite play and actually hope the game is too close for the coaches to pull back their pass D.

Jets -2 Jets 27 Bills 23 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Bills 22 Jets 17

Good Luck Everyone!

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