WEEK 11

Patriots -7 Patriots 31 Bills 23 Computer Projection PUSH: Pats 20 Bills 13

The good news is that it's going to be a perfect nite for football tonite in Foxboro. The bad news, for the Bills, is that it's going to be a perfect nite for football tonite in Foxboro. The only thing to keep the Pats from lighting up the scoreboard is the Buffalo defense. Those Bills might be pretty good, but we've seen even the best pass defenses torn apart by the precision passing game of the Pats. Offensively for the Bills, their best is a strong rushing attack. Again, those guys are good, but the Pats don't have a bad run D, and they've been best in the league against the run over the last four weeks. No, we don't see it happening tonite for the Bills. Our big concern is the Pats heading for the locker room early, as many teams do, while the Bills cover with a consolation TD. Let's just play the minimum and take a nice week's profit into Thanksgiving.

The point spread of 4 1/2 leaves us with GRIDLINE pointing to Cincy by the slimmest of margins. It's certainly a bet we wouldn't make if given any other choice. We need the action, so we'll do what we often do in these situations. We'll play a Two-team, 6 pt Teaser. In this case, we'll add the 6 points to the actual spread of 4 1/2, and we'll subtract 6 from the Total of 48 1/2. We consider Teasers a poor bet because just because the bettor has to hit two bets, and it only pays off like a regular spread bet. Add to that the fact that traditionally the oddsmakers are off by 10 points in both the spread and Total, and you understand our lack of confidence. Other than that, it should be a good game, possibly a preview of SB L. The Cards defense might set the tone, but turnovers could keep the games close. We just hope the oddsmakers are fairly accurate.

TEASER: Bengals +10 1/2 & Bengals/Cardinals OVER 42 1/2 Cardinals 27 Bengals 23 Computer Projection HIT: Cards 34 Bengals 31

The Texans don't throw the ball particularly efficiently. They don't complete a lot of passes, and they don't generally don't go a long way. But they throw a lot, and they pile up a lot of passing yardage. We think the Texans will have some success in the air. The Jets less so. They may have a decent running game but the Jags do play good pass D, so it should be hard for New York to sustain a drive. Neither team has been able to score recently, maybe the return of Yates will help, but Houston has been playing much stronger defense. We have a few points which could come in handy in a tight, low scoring game. This is a rare case where we're actually getting the juice. Odds are based on the value of 100, where "-" basically means "bet", and "+" means "get". In most cases the odds are -110. We bet 110 to get 100. In this case, the odds of +105 means for every 100 we bet, we get 105. Most bettors know this. Every bettor should.

Texans +3 Texans 23 Jets 22 Computer Projection HIT: Texans 24 Jets 17

We got down on this one quickly because it looks like it'll go up to 3 1/2 or more by the afternoon. As it stands, we have to take it at -115. Having to pay a little extra juice can bring that bet amount down real quick. The Chiefs mediocre numbers somehow add up to an exceptional rank in our Power Ratings. It surprises us to the point that we checked the stats looking for an error. We haven't found one yet. We see a team that only has one weakness, in pass protection, and they don't exactly rely on the pass. With the Chargers among the worst at defending the run it's almost a certainty that they'll have to over-stack the line, and we think Andy Reid knows how to handle a defense that is spread too thin. On the other side of the ball, it's pass, pass, pass. It might work for awhile in Chargerland, but with with the Chiefs playing great pass D of late (see RECENT Ratings) we can't see it being enough.

Chiefs -3 Chiefs 28 Chargers 25 Computer Projection HIT: Chiefs 33 Bolts 3

Vikings -1 Vikings 23 Packers 19 Computer Projection MISS: Pack 30 Vikes 13

Yikes! Betting against the Pack. That's like a one-way trip to Gambler's Anon. Really, tho, that seam route the Packers have run so well for years isn't working anymore, and those WR screens aren't being executed like they were earlier this year. and the trap play don't work nowadays, and they don't lead the league in pass protection anymore. The Pack never was very good at run defense but they scored so fast their opponent didn't have time to establish a running game. Now they do have time, and Green bay is going against the best rushing team in the league. This year the Vikings defense is fine, which should be enough to keep the Pack in check. The Pack has single-handedly ruined our season in the past on more than one occasion, so we'll keep this on down to a chip.

Jaguars -3 Jaguars 26 Titans 20 Computer Projection HIT: Jags 19 Tits 13

This game features a couple of also rans who have problems with consistency. Both of these teams are offensively challenged, with the same numbers across the table. Defensively, the Tits rate rather well, although the Jags have played better than the Tits this month on that side the ball. Neither team will be able to run the ball tonite, while we figure the Jags will have a slightly better nite passing. The Titans actually do have a pass rush, which is of no little concern to us. The key statistic as we see it is the schedule strength. The Jaguars have posted their numbers against winning teams, while the Tits numbers have come against losing teams. With the Jags at home, we think they'll win a suspenseful game with a short spread. We did downgrade the home field advantage, along with our Zoom Factor that awards extra yardage where statistical mismatches occur, so we feel pretty good about taking the home favorite. 2 chips.

Good Luck Everyone!

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