National Football League 2015 Season
WEEK 12
| ATS Rec | Pct. | Chips Bet | Net Chips | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 12 | 7-1-0 | 87.5% | 12.3 | 8.9 |
| Season to date | 35-22-5 | 61.4% | 78.2 | 12.5 |
| ATS Rec | Pct. | Chips Bet | Net Chips | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 12 | 7-1-0 | 87.5% | 12.3 | 8.9 |
| Season to date | 35-22-5 | 61.4% | 78.2 | 12.5 |
| Plays for MNF |
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It's possible the Browns can come away with a victory tonite, but is it really possible they'll win with anything other than a FG on the game's last play? A point spread that has risen to 4 has to have some bettors doing reversals. These are two inconsistent, hard luck teams. Several players are out tonite. Baltimore because of injuries, Cleveland because their coach doesn't drink. If Pettine was coaching the 1969 Jets instead of Weeb Ewbank, you'd have to think Babe Parelli would be starting against the mighty Colts. Anyway, it leaves us with journeymen Matt Shaub and Josh McCown. Neither of these teams can sustain drives. Baltimore wants to run but they generally can't, and Cleveland can pass but sacks and fumbles generally put a quick end to it. Maybe if they had a guy who could scramble around, buy time, and nail big plays it would be better suited to the Browns. We're going with the Ravens because they might finally find a running game against a weak Brown run D, and because the Browns rank 26th in QB protection. If push comes to shove, we think Shaub is the better QB tonite. |
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| Plays for SNF |
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This is a game where we don't have to have a bet in order to enjoy it. Fat chance. It should be a good one but really, not having anything riding on it? We can't do that. Not on Sunday Night Football. We wouldn't be able to look Carrie Underwood in the face. This one's about the Broncos' pass defense. It's the best in the league. True, they're going up against Brady and the best passing offense in the league, but they're doing it in Denver, in less than perfect conditions. We know what the Pats are going to try to do. We saw it in the Super Bowl against another top pass defense. We don't think even Tom Brady can duplicate that performance. Of course, it doesn't mean we have to bet a whole lot on the game. The Broncos start some kid called Osweiler. He's from Zona St., so he should be used to a pro-style offense. We don't like to sound cliched, but Osweiler needs to simply manage the game - much like Peyton was doing. We have a certain amount of confidence in a kid who hung tough on the road in Chicago last week. It's a pretty good bet that a single play will determine both the spread and outcome of this game. |
| Plays for Sunday |
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These are two of the throwingest teams in the league. Both teams will have some success running the ball, but this one's about the pass. And it's not all about Manning vs. Cousins. It's more about the Giants pass defense, which many consider the worst in the league, and the Skins pass D, which is almost average. It should be a game where no lead is safe. Also, it's expected to be damp in Washington. If GRIDLINE was susceptible to generalizations, we could say that Eli is a less effective with a wet ball. We have had problems taking too many home teams this season, but that was mostly with favorites, we'll go lite on the home doggie. |
| Saints games are always about the Saints defense, or lack thereof. The Saints give up more points than anyone else, whether you're looking at the whole season or just the last four weeks. Even for a team as slow scoring as the Texans the Saints should offer little resistance. The Saints are good offensively, but against what has become a strong Houston defense we have to expect some tough going at times, especially with the Texans at home and in the midst of a playoff race. We're downgrading this play a little because, although we like Hoyer, we think Yates is the proper QB for Houston. Also, the odds are such that we have to bet 12/10 to take the Texans. |
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| The Jets try to be a running team. It hasn't always worked this season, but it should against what may be the weakest run D in the league. That not only translates in to yardage, but also into Time of Possession. The Dolphins have trouble scoring if they don't have their hands on the ball. It's a bit disturbing that the Jets have given up a lot of passing yards against weak competition of late. That will keep this bet low. |
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| It's almost like we're trying to buy a PUSH. At 12/10 odds, yet. The system says Seattle, but the system doesn't know R'Berger's back. Really, tho, this rare matchup is going to be decided by the rushing stats, where two top running teams go against two top rushing defenses. It's really a better game to watch than to bet on, but it's essentially the only game in town in the afternoon. Can either team win by more than a FG? There's no tellin' why GRIDLINE's algorithm pointed to Seattle. With the numbers all over the place, this computer pick comes down to the properties of determinants. |
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| Plays for Thanksgiving nite |
| We don't have any confidence in this bet, it's simply an "IF" play should the Panthers come in. An "IF" play simply means, "Play this one if the previous play HITs". We wanted action if we got some chips. The play just happens to be a Teaser, where, in this case, we subtract 6 from the real spread of 8 and Total of 45. There's nothing to go on here. The Bears always lose to the Pack? Weak. |
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| Plays for Thanksgiving |
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This play looks pretty good. Romo can mean a lot to a team, but that's about the only questionable aspect we've come across. Even with Romo, the Cows will face a strong pass rush, and the Panthers are no. 1 in defensive passing efficiency this year. We don't see much of a running game against a good D, one that ranks only behind the Pats over the last month. When the Pants have the ball they mostly run it, which is why their passing totals are low. Otherwise, they complete passes at a whopping 13.2 yards a catch (league avg. 11.6). Something tells us the Cows won't be able to stack the line like Green Bay did against the Vikes last week. This may turn into a battle for possession time if Romo has Dallas executing, but that's a lot to ask for against one of the top teams in the league.
We're a bit ahead, and the other two games are too close to call so we'll up our risk factor on this one Thursday game. Make it our first Full play of the season on the visitors. |
Good Luck Everyone!
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