WEEK 13

Redskins -3 Redskins 25 Cowboys 20 Computer Projection MISS: Cows 19 Skins 16

Not much to say about the numbers between these two teams. They're close. Sure, the Cows will run and the Skins will pass, but it'll pretty much even out in the end. The primary reason the GRIDLINE system points to the Skins is the HFA, We like to have more than that to lean on. The one thing we did notice is that the Skins are a little more efficient with the scoring. In other words, Dallas gains a little more yardage, but Washington has the higher scoring average. Translated into the real world, it means that maybe the Cows will settle for a FG while the Skins score a TD. This could very well be a good game decoded by a FG, so we like the fact that the spread dropped a point to 3.

Colts +7 Steelers 27 Colts 21 Computer Projection MISS: Steelers 45 Colts 10

We're really pushing it this time. The system has Pitt as a pretty convincing winner, with the Colts barely covering the generous spread. Last year R'Berger set records against an almost non-existent secondary. It doesn't look much better this year with the Colts ranked 27th in passing yardage allowed. The Colts do, however, have a reasonable ranking this year in passing efficiency, or yards/attempt, and it gets an even more reasonable 12th in the last month, where the Colts have won a few games. Pittsburgh is so excellent up and down the numbers that its hard to imagine anyone keeping up with them at home, but more than a touchdown may be too much to give a Colts team that's on a roll.

This one is about first downs. The Panthers key to success has always been about limiting the opponents first downs, getting the ball in good field position, and slowly riding their running game to the score. Against the Saints in New Orleans, it might not be so easy to wrest the ball from the Saints. Drew Brees can complete a lot of shorter passes. It's what makes the Saints one of the most efficient passing teams even though their completions are generally shorter than the league average. The Pants aren't going to have too much trouble scoring, as you would expect, but they may not have the ball as much as they are used to. If the New Orleans defense at least gets in the way, this one could come in.

Saints +7 Panthers 29 Saints 26 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Pants 41 Saints 38

Last week Matt Shaub hit two good passes. Maybe with the added prep time he'll hit four. It's a long cry from the Texans days when the kid seemed automatic with that possession passing game. Sunday, we just need him to keep the Fins from stacking the line. Baltimore figures to run against one of the weaker run defenses in the league. Dan Campbell of the Dolphins was right in demanding more runs from his offense - the Fins rush for 4.6 yards/carry - but the Ravens have one of the better run defenses in the league, so this might not be the right game to shake things up. It's going to be a wet ball in Miami but we don't see that working against the underdog.

Ravens +4 Ravens 24 Dolphins24 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Fins 15 Ravens 13

Patriots -8 1/2 Patriots 34 Eagles 20 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Eags 45 Pats 38

This is the type of bet that's been hurting us all year: large home favorites. After watching several road dogs cover we jowered our HFA and reduced our ZOOM parameter (ZOOM exaggerates statistcal mismatches so they are more prevalent). Even so, the system points hard at the Pats. Apparently, it takes a pretty good pass D to keep the Pats from scoring, and Philly doesn't have one. That a lot of offense to keep up with on the road, and the Pats have a better than average defense.

Green Bay has been a thorn in our side since we started recording our plays on line in 2000. Our last loss before the current win streak involved the Packers this past Thursday. It doesn't matter whether we bet on them or against them. We are always confounded. It's gotten to the point where we try to avoid them as much as possible. The problem is, they always are scheduled for Prime Time, and we always play the Prime Time games. It looks like the Lions should pull this one out tonite. We can't really see a lot of statistical support for the OFFICIAL forecast, but the numbers over the last month are pretty convincing. While the Packers have played well in the last four weeks, ranking 9th, only the Panthers and Chiefs have performed better than the Lions over that period. Even with the line coming down it's hard to imagine the Lions getting points. Our RECENT forecast has the Lions winning 22-16. One set of numbers that jump out at us is the kick return yardage, where over the last month the Lions are first and the Pack's coverage unit is second to last. It's still a Packer game, so we'll keep our bet to a minimum.

Lions +2 1/2 Lions 24 Packers 22 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Pack 27 Lions 23

Good Luck Everyone!

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