WEEK 14

This game is headed straight for overtime. We can't cap it. The Giants have the better offense, but both teams have awful defenses. We wouldn't be surprised to see 1000 yards of combined offense on a wet night in Miami. Neither team can stop the other, but the turnover numbers suggest the Fins might stop themselves. What th'heck, we'll Parlay a play that's basically a coin toss and hope for a good payout. We used to call our one chip minimum a Parlay-level bet, anyway. Payouts for Parlays vary, but it's usually close to 3 X the wager minus the juice.

PARLAY: Giants PICK & Giants/Fins OVER 47 Giants 25 Dolphins 24 Computer Projection HIT: Giants 31 Fins 24

It's strength against strength tonite as the Pats take their vaunted passing attack into Houston against one of the top pass defenses in the league. We're not sure going after the Texan's best unit is the proper way to attack this team. Against the run, the Texans are vulnerable - ranked toward the bottom of the league - but the Pats don't generally run the ball, and when they do it doesn't scare anybody. Offensively, it's going to be a challenge for the Texans to move the ball with a steady but inefficient passing game. So many dinks and dunks, however, does allow them to spring a run every once in awhile. This game may turn out to be conservative, with neither team willing to waste plays past the first quarter. That first quarter could be hectic for the Texans, though, as Brady tests that pass defense. This is a game where you want points, and the spread is skyrocketing as bettors get wind of the series record between these two and Watts' injury. We have seen 6 but our outs only offer 5 (up from 3) right now. We list it at that and wait til later to place the bet.

Texans +5 Patriots 25 Texans 23 Computer Projection MISS: Pats 27 Texans 6

We pretty much know what the numbers are going to look like when we see a spread like this. The one thing we want to check when going against a good passing team like the Chargers is the other team's pass D. The Chiefs defense ranks 7th in passing efficiency, or yards/pass play. It can't hurt that the Chargers have to travel east to play early. We feel pretty good about this one because it was a Best Bet before a lot of bettors forced the points upward on an emotional angle which is also in the Chiefs favor. Still, when laying this many points to a passing team one has to be leery of the backdoor cover. That, and some nasty weather, keep this a minimum play.

Chiefs -11 Chiefs 31 Chargers 17 Computer Projection MISS: Chiefs 10 Bolts 3

Again, as in the Chiefs bet, we check the Bears pass D against a team that needs to pass. The Bears have a top notch pass defense. Also, the Bears are stubborn to a fault in sticking with their running game, but that attitude may come in handy. The Bears should have more success than they're used to on the ground against a Redskin team that's been in the bottom third of the league all season. Again, as in the Chiefs play, we're downgrading this play because of bad weather. We're also buying the 1/2 point as we always do when the spread is 3 1/2, this time at 13/10 odds.

Bears -3 (buy) Bears 26 Redskins 21 Computer Projection MISS: Skins 24 Bears 21

Browns -1 1/2 Browns 24 49rs 22 Computer Projection HIT: Browns 24 49ers 10

We're playing this one on a whim. Frisco has to travel across time zones to play early, and Johnny Manziel gets the start for the Browns. Neither of those factors have to play to our advantage, but we're hoping one of them will.

Broncos -6 1/2 Broncos 27 Raiders 18 Computer Projection MISS: Raiders 15 Broncos 12

We need one in the afternoon, and we'll kick ourselves if Green Bay comes in and Denver doesn't, but the numbers look better for this game. The OFFICIAL forecast doesn't point so hard at the Broncs, but the RECENT and even the NOSHOW forecasts are good indicators. Denver has that defense that is playing lights out, and over the last month they have developed a strong rushing attack. That should spell trouble for the Raiders, who never have done particularly well against the run, and have been downright pitiful recently. We can't help but like the kid, Osweiler. And even though we don't try to predict fumbles we know a lot of our readers swear by it, so this is for them: Denver is first in recovering fumbles while the Raiders are 27th at protecting the ball.

& TEASER: Vikings +17 & Vikes/Cards UNDER 52 1/2 Cardinals 27 Vikings 18 Computer Projection HIT: Cards 23 Vikes 20

We're in a bad spot having just made two bad bets on MNF & SNF, and faced with a jarger point spread. The game defies analysis. The Cards have a habit of routing teams. and the Vikes can be routed whenever someone stops their running game. We've seen a few occasions when their coach has shown he was clueless as to what to do when his opponent simply stacks the line. The scary thing is, the Cards run defense is good enough to stop the Vikes run game without blitzing the run, and we don't know if that's good or bad. Sigh, all we can do is Tease this one, take a bunch of points along with a high Total, and hope for the best. We're teasing the 11 up to 17 and taking the points, and adding 6 to the 46 1/2 Total and going UNDER 52 1/2. Essentially, we're throwing ourselves at the mercy of the Cardinal coaches, and hoping against the rout. Don't try this at home.

Good Luck Everyone!

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