WEEK 15

Can either team win this one by more than a FG? Both teams are in the bottom half of the league, but we have Detroit ranked a bit higher than the Saints, 21 to 26, actually. The numbers are all over the place as one would expect. The Lions do have a good pass rush. We're just looking for a good, close ball game from two teams that are loose as a goose. We are betting this one early to get that 3 points.

Lions +3 Saints 27 Lions 25 Computer Projection HIT: Lions 35 Saints 27

We have the Cards rated as the top team in football in our objective Power Ratings. The Eags are somewhere in the bottom half of the league. We don't see the Eagles stopping the NFL's top ranked offense. That unit also leads the league in Time of Possession, a category where Philly's hurry up O ranks dead last. Philly also ranks near the bottom in Punts. Punting isn't a good idea against the Cards. Maybe the Eagles will start some trouble when they have the ball, but we don't expect them to have it a lot tonite. We'll go with a lite play on the road favorite. Card bettors maywant to grab this one before the line climbs.

Cardinals -4 Cardinals 28 Eagles 23 Computer Projection HIT: Cards 37 Eags 17

We've had some trouble this year trying to get a bead on the Raiders. It seems we miss whether we bet for or against them. We're taking them this week simply because they are a Best Bet. Honestly, we're flabbergasted by this pick. At the same time, we know if any team concentrates perfectly they can win any game. The raw numbers don't really support the play, but our computer nonetheless put out the same Total Offense for both teams. It looks like we may need a couple of those inexplicable big plays from the Raiders. It's encouraging that Oakland's line ate up Denver's line last week on both sides of the ball, and we do like Carr at QB for Oakland.

Raiders +4 Raiders 25 Packers 24 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Pack 30 Raiders 20

These are two of the poorer teams in the league this season and maybe the two worst over the last month. We like the short spread at home for San Diego, and despite their failings this year, the Chargers are good at both making and preventing FDs. FDs used to be a lot more important 10 years ago, but maybe they'll become a factor again in this game between also-rans.

Chargers -1 1/2 Chargers 25 Dolphins 21 Computer Projection HIT: Bolts 30 Fins 14

Redskins +3 (buy) Redskins 25 Bills 24 Computer Projection HIT: Skins 35 Bills 25

This is a classic run vs. pass scenario. On paper, the Bills look to have success on the ground against what looks to be the weak run D of the Skins, but the Skins have been coming around in that department of late, and they ARE at home. And the Skins should have some luck passing the ball against a toothless pass rush. One stat we will be watching closely is penalties, where the Bills may suffer a long day. They commit more penalties than 29 other teams. Also, the Skins are 4-1 ATS as home dogs this year while Buffalo has failed ATS in two tries as road favorites this year. When we start talking about ATS records, it's in our best interest to buy this one up at 13/10 to a 3 point spread. We just saw how much a half-point can help in the Cowboy game. Of course, if you're a Skin player you may get the full 3 points just by waiting, but for us, the prospect of sleep seems rather attractive at this point in the holiday season.

Cowboys +3 1/2 Cowboys 21 Jets 21 Computer Projection HIT: Jets 19 Cows 16

To be honest, none of the numbers look right in this game. Rushing, passing, turnovers, penalties, possession time ... we don't see an advantage for the Cows anywhere. So why does the system point so firmly to Dallas? As far as we can tell, it's schedule strength. The Jets' opponents are 74-95. Their schedule is the easiest in the league. The Cows have one of the harder schedules. Their opponent's are 93-76. Schedule strength is a factor in the GRIDLINE algorythm - we use it to adjust each team's numbers before we start to compute them - and it becomes more weighted as the season progresses. We're not sure the algorithm was designed for the schedules to have this much of an impact on the outcomes, but it is a truism that one can expect better performances against weaker teams. Yeah, yeah, yeah, sounds like a lot of crap but that's what we're going with.

Bucs +1 Rams 22 Bucs 20 Computer Projection MISS: Rams 31 Bucs 23

Both of these teams run the ball, and they run it well. Of the two, the Bucs have the run defense. The Rams run D is average. Whereas the Rams may be forced to stack the line, the Bucs may be able to slow the Rams run game with an honest defense. Also, the Rams can't pass the ball, they're last in the league, so if Tampa does have to stack the line to stop the run they should be able to do it without yielding a mess of passing yardage. The Bucs, on the other hand, have a very efficient passing attack although they don't rely on it (9th in yards/attempt). There may be a long scoring toss in the Bucs near future. We hardly ever bet against the system, but we're doing it tonite. We simply can't deny the numbers, and the system only points the Rams way because of the HFA. Besides, the forecast actually points the Bucs way because the Early Line was 2.5.

Good Luck Everyone!

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