National Football League 2015 Season
WEEK 16
| ATS Rec | Pct. | Chips Bet | Net Chips | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 16 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 7.8 | 4.8 |
| Season to date | 50-33-5 | 60.2% | 109.3 | 18.9 |
| ATS Rec | Pct. | Chips Bet | Net Chips | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 16 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 7.8 | 4.8 |
| Season to date | 50-33-5 | 60.2% | 109.3 | 18.9 |
| Plays for MNF |
|
We're the cynical sort here at GRIDLINE (Duh!). Our lingering memories of these two teams are the Broncos being manhandled in the trenches by the Raiders, and the Bengals impotence against the Texans. It's almost enough to make us want to take the UNDER, but with such a low Total we're disposed to Tease it down further and take the OVER. The computer doesn't give us much help here, calling it a PUSH. It looks to us like a flash TD will determine the winner, but even if Denver is the beneficiary it may not doom our teased point spread. Sometimes, ALL two-way teasers hit. The actual line is Denver -4 and a O/U of 39 1/2 pts. |
|
| Plays for SNF |
|
This one is similar to the Bears game earlier,where the home team has the run and the visitors have the pass. Again, the dogs will have to stack the line, but in this case the Giants don't have as good a pass D to back it up. It should be a case where it's the overall excellence of Eli Manning vs. Bridgewater manipulation of the Giants pass D. We don't know if the Giants can pull it off, but neither does the computer. A healthy Beckham has to sit this one out. Odell, it's the guy who retaliates that gets the punishment. It's only 1/2 point spread differential from our spread to theirs now that the line has turned a little, and now it may be turning back. Line movements have played a big part lately - the Cards line jumped 1 1/2 points in a blink this morning - so we're gong to play early before it drops any more. All we can do is trust in Eli and buy the 6 1/2 up to 7 at 12/10. |
|
| Plays for Sunday |
|
These are two teams that have been doing a lot of losing lately. It's not bad having points when two losing teams play. Going in, we know the Bucs have the advantage running the ball and the Bears passing. The Bears will probably have to stack the line at some point. We're betting that the Bucs don't fully exploit the Bears thin defense. It's of no little importance to us that the Bears have played a much harder schedule. Besides, this is the only noon game where the RECENT forecast supports the OFFICIAL one. |
|
|
As we said last week before they killed the Eags, the Cards are our highest rated team. It appears there are only a few teams that can slow down these guys down, and Green Bay isn't one of them. It's possible the Cards defense can be had, especially by a great QB such as Rodgers, but the Pack hasn't had as great a passing attack as they've had in the past, and we don't know if Aaron can carry this team to the upset. We have a history of being wrong where the Pack is concerned, and maybe we're wrong again, but this Best Bet looks like it's good for two chips. |
|
| Plays for Saturday nite |
|
Our OFFICIAL forecast calls this one a push, but our RECENT forecast points squarely to the Skins. In that one, the Skins and the Eagles have virtually the same Total Offense. The big stat, as always with the 'Hurry-Up' Eagles, is Time of Possession. We have de-emphasized Time of Possession over the last several seasons, but we feel it deserves a closer look in an Eagles game, where Eags coach Kelly tosses that stat to the wind. No, he doesn't need the possession stat to score, but it does provide their opponent with plenty of time to score as well, and this late in the season we have to wonder if that defense is starting to tire. Still, it should be an exciting game with plenty of offense. Could we be looking at another OT game? |
| Plays for Christmas Eve |
|
Last week, we thought we were in pretty good position as the Raiders took over with two minutes left and only needing a consolation TD to beat the spread. Instead, Raiders coach Del Rio opted to test the Green Bay Prevent by going deep time after time, when simply dumping it off and taking the 12 yards would have eventually set them up for the score. It was exactly what Green Bay coach McCarthy wanted Del Rio to do. It was the only play they were defending. Del Rio would be well-advised to do what the opposing coach DOESN'T want him to do. Betting a team will score the consolation TD is a good bet. Del Rio cost us. We lost the first Chargers/Raiders game in San Diego earlier this year when the Chargers were a No-Show, for the first three quarters, at least. A lot of that was also because of the coach, whose game plan was to throw underneath. Unfortunately for the Chargers, the Raiders came out in a man-to-man defense, and someone was always there. You're gonna get creamed if you don't adjust quickly, and the Chargers' Mike McCoy didn't. In the meantime, a disoriented defense gave up big play after big play. Tonite, we expect a passing contest. It should be entertaining. Both Carr and Rivers can light things up if they concentrate. We're sure both teams are going to be a bit distracted, given the timing of the game, so hopefully that'll keep the game close. If worse comes to worse, Charger bettors should still be able to pull for the backdoor cover. Sometimes it's better to trail by 12 instead of 6 as time winds down. |
|
Good Luck Everyone!
