GRIDLINE's Primetime Plays
National Football League 2014 Season

Games of WEEK 01

content below posted 17:00MON08SEP14 cst

Plays for MNF

Just like an NFL team, sometimes it's hard for a bettor to get that first score under the belt. That's how we feel after last nite. Denver won the game but cost us the Hit when they started looking at the clock way too early. They ended up getting hooked by the spread. Man, we hate to get hooked. If we get beat, we want those turkeys to get beat, too. Needless to say, we can't wait for the system to kick in after WEEK 03.

We should have a winner if the Chargers are that same team that traveled to Cincy and kicked ass in the playoffs. They seem to squeeze every ounce of air there is out of the ball. The Cards aren't anything to sneeze at, either, especially in Card-land, but Palmer is going to have to be Palmer before he blew out his knee to wrest control of this game from the Chargers. If we didn't have the computer pending, if we were just gambling, if we hadn't missed our first two plays, we might up the bet here. It's just WEEK 01, we'll go minimum again.

Chargers +2 1/2

n/a
Computer Projection

HIT: Cards 18 Bolts 17

It should be a cool game on a hot, desert nite. It'll be a late one. Maybe a late as 2am on the east coast. Football should be round-the-clock, anyway. We'll be back for some more action Thursday

content below posted 17:45SUN07SEP14 cst

Plays for SNF

Every NFL gambler hates to lose the season opener. It's just one play in what is an endless stream of plays but man, it's hurts worse than you'd think it would. Even betting the minimum, at this stage it hurts. In this case the Pack's defensive front just got creamed by the Hawks' O-line. We didn't see that coming. We still don't know if Green Bay's line is that bad or if Seattle's is that good. Probably a mix of the two. We'll have a better idea in a couple of weeks when the GRIDLINE computer kicks in with the recent data. For now, we'll continue to wing it.

Broncos -8 1/2

n/a
Computer Projection

MISS: Broncs 31 Colts 24

This is another hard bet to make. We know Indy can beat these guys at home. We hit them last season in Week 07. But that was in Indy, and the Colts basically outsmarted them. Tonite they are in Denver. That thin air isn't a visitor's friend up there. We know Peyton and the Broncos can play in Mile High, but we can't be sure about the Colts. Then again, the new Mile-High ain't the old Mile-High. And there may be some rain, but the field won't get sloppy and the wind won't kick up. In any event, it's just "Go Peyton!" The Colts are a good team and Pagano is a smart coach, but we're going to go with the minimum, one chip play on the home team and hope the Broncs' sheer athleticism becomes too much for Indy.

Can't wait to see these two, good teams in action. Can't wait for the return of SNF. Can't wait to see Carrie Underwood in this year's new intro. Win or lose, check back tomorrow for some more free, PrimeTime action.

content below posted 03:45THU04SEP14 cst

Plays for Thursday

How productive was our offseason here at GRIDLINE? Just what did we accomplish? Nuthin'. Everything is the same. Same old reports designed for the old Dot Matrix printers. same antiquated site design that was so popular in the 20th century. Same old 486 running the GRIDLINE system over DOS. Those reports we list on the site can now be had on several others. They are flashier. Prettier. But guess what? They don't contain more or better info. GRIDLINE has been generating this output since the 1980's. We are the original. We know the league average for punts and penalties. We know how every team does vs. the spread. We know how teams stack up against each other in rushing attempts and yards/pass. We know a lot. We like to think the forecast can tell how teams will fare against each other if they approach their potential. Last season it did to the tune of 57% ATS. Why change anything? The idea is to win and enjoy doing it. At GRIDLINE, we gamble for fun and profit.

The league lined up a great game tonite. Both teams are healthy and the weather is perfect. In fact, everything about this matchup is perfect, including the point spread. That part makes it very difficult to cap. We try not to think too much about last year when we are capping this year, so for the first game we don't have much to go on. But as we said, the line is perfect, so we ran the game through last year's season to try to get a bead on it. No luck. The GRIDLINE computer predicted a 26-20 win for Seattle, and the last half-point was rounding error. If it were any other game we would pass on it, but this is the Opener, and as we always say, the NFL season doesn't start without GRIDLINE.

We did see that the key to a Seahawk win was - aside from the obvious HFA - a better use of their yardage. A better conversion of yards into points. Everything else was equal. What tilted us toward Green Bay was that the computer showed the Seahawks passing more than they're used to. They're not into that. Another thing not to be taken lightly is the possibility of a backdoor cover. Seattle would have to have a 2 TD lead to be able to give up a TD at the end of the game, and thats just to beat the spread. If something goes terribly wrong, wouldn't you bet on the Pack to make the consolation TD in the last two minutes?

Well, that's all we've got for the opener. If you want a sure thing, go to the thousands of cappers that'll tell you they have one. For us, it's just going to be the one chip minimum and hope for the best. At least it looks like it should be a competitive game.

Packers +5 1/2

n/a
Computer Projection

MISS: Hawks 36 Pack 16

We often like to concentrate on a particular aspect of the game each season. A couple of years ago we wanted to know how many games involved NO-SHOWs (15%). Last year we wanted to know how a team's performance was affected playing home or away (+-5%). The one thing we want to watch closely this year is short-yardage scenarios. We wonder what it says about the team and the coach, and the odds of beating the spread. We haven't automated anything yet but we will be keeping an eye on them and we should have some theories about short-yardage in mid-season.

Anyway, as they say at the asylum, "We're off!" We should be back for the Sunday niter but who knows for sure when our next play will be. Last year we played a daylight game then skipped one of the two, opening week MNF games. Check here for more action. Until then ...

Good Luck Everyone!

Last Season's Super Bowl